Daily Spot: Energies
A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]
Crude Oil Jul (CLN) Aggressive selling… too aggressive? Sliding from Wednesday’s open fell relentlessly back under the pattern’s 101.50 recent highs, filling the gap back to Friday’s 100.47 close. That left outstanding the gap back up to Tuesday’s 102.50 open. It doesn’t require being filled since it was produced by a 3-day holiday weekend. A second consecutive lower close under Wednesday’s 99.91 low would put into play a test of 97.50. Closing under it would target 88.75. Meanwhile, a bounce has potential up to 101.80 without a bigger rally gaining control.
Natural Gas Jul (NGN) A refreshing pause ahead of news. Extending aggressively up to 4.70 Wednesday had created room for a pullback down to 4.58. It was attacked at Wednesday’s low, and could be tested intraday Thursday (EIA is reporting) down to 4.53 before considering whether the rally is losing momentum. Otherwise, the rally’s 4.80 target remains in-play.
Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Could have been worse, which is bullish. Wednesday’s gap down initially extended Tuesday’s drop. The gap’s open was essentially at Tuesday’s 74.55 low, and Wednesday’s 74.35 low was recovered to close back above Tuesday’s 74.55 low. Closing back above 74.75 (instead of still in the process of testing it) would have trapped shorts, but closing back above Tuesday’s 74.55 low does prevent sellers from gaining any new traction for their efforts.
Gold Aug (GCQ) Approaching the danger zone. A surge to new highs came within $6-1/2 of the 1558.00-1560.00 corrective bounce target. This leg should touch 1553.00 before becoming vulnerable to a bigger dip. So, the afternoon’s drop to 1542.00 is probably just a temporary pullback. The rally wouldn’t start losing traction without closing under 1538.50.
30-year Treasury Sep (USU) As if being forced reluctantly to rally. Tuesday morning’s recovery to fresh highs had extended up only narrowly through the close. Wednesday’s open exploded higher to fulfill the next objective at 125’20 (126’30 basis Jun). A second consecutive higher close would confirm the next objective in-play at 127’00. A pullback would meanwhile have room down to 125’10 without letting sellers gain traction.
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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).