Daily Spot: Energies

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Crude Oil Nov (CLZ) Wednesday’s ranging around month-old 84.90 prior highs without extending higher has reflected restrained optimism to help avoid becoming overextended. The potential to probe prior highs more thoroughly depends upon avoiding a close under 83.55.

The interim consolidation sloped upward, which reflects optimism. This tends to expend buying pressure that is sorely missed just when it is needed most – now, trying to extend above the prior high.

Natural Gas Nov (NGZ) Three consecutive sessions now have tested the 3.83-3.84 pullback limit that keeps alive the potential for another upleg. A close above 3.96-3.97 would signal the next upleg underway, targeting 4.40. EIA reports Thursday morning.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) The FOMC reaction spiked down sharply to new lows, which easily included a test of 76.65. Its retest into the close proves its relevance. And having held its test through the close allows a rally leg to begin without delay.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Wednesday’s open spiked up to retest 1363.00 that was quickly retraced. A $30 drop from 1357.00 preempted the afternoons FOMC reaction. The 1342.00 pullback limit was tested thoroughly into and out of the close. A downleg is free to begin.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Tuesday’s attack on the 131’25 sell signal jeopardized the bearish pattern. So did Wednesday’s rally up to 133’00 ahead of FOMC’s QE announcement. A negative close was needed to maintain the bearish outlook. The news triggered a dive to 130’00. Bounces should now hold tests of 130’26 to maintain this leg’s momentum targeting 128’14.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).