Notice: Function _load_textdomain_just_in_time was called incorrectly. Translation loading for the disable-gutenberg domain was triggered too early. This is usually an indicator for some code in the plugin or theme running too early. Translations should be loaded at the init action or later. Please see Debugging in WordPress for more information. (This message was added in version 6.7.0.) in /home4/jwl23/public_html/rd.johnlander.me/wp-includes/functions.php on line 6131
Daily Spot: Energies – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot: Energies

By Rod David | September 22, 2010 - 7:28 pm

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.

[pay]

Crude Oil Nov (CLX) Monday’s rally back into Wednesday’s range never gained traction. An opportunity to probe higher was not exploited Tuesday, which instead retraced 61.8% of the rally into Monday’s high. The corrective bounce could have resumed.

A corrective bounce was limited to briefly retesting Monday’s high. A steep intraday drop probed last week’s low – the origin of Monday’s bounce – and new lows for the month.

The resulting price action is potentially forming a Complex Head & Shoulders. It is projecting a drop to new lows targeting 69.05-69.85, and potentially 67.90. Being a Complex pattern, its direction could invert, and a close above 76.35 would trigger a more substantial rally leg.

Natural Gas Oct (NGV) Monday’s crash to prior lows repeated a more subdued crash last week. While that can satisfy a lot of selling pressure – possibly also create more net short selling pressure – bouncing too quickly would attract more. A dip intraday to fresh lows that recovers through the close would be a buy signal

Gold Dec (GCZ) Wednesday’s high fulfilled the 1294.00 200% swing target from early September’s failed Head & Shoulders pattern. A pullback to 1280.50 would be able to launch a retest of 1294.00, and allow momentum to reverse down more sustainably.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Wednesday’s open tested 132’28 resistance, and Wednesday’s close returned it, after probing higher highs intraday. Shorter-term RSIs did not deteriorate, so a drop can begin immediately only by gapping or spiking down. Otherwise, another failed probe of 132’28 is needed first.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Tuesday’s drop extended down overnight for Wednesday’s open to gap under the Complex Triangle’s 161.8% target. So long as 79.94 holds as support, a bounce to 80.75-81.00 is likely. And a bounce has potential to extend much higher.
[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).

Posted in Daily Spot