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Daily Spot… Euro and Metals reversals imminent? – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot… Euro and Metals reversals imminent?

By Rod David | August 15, 2018 - 2:22 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Still trending down overnight greeted Wednesday’s open with a slightly lower gap that extended to fresh trend lows. That was  retraced into the noon hour, then probed positive territory. The open was just under Tuesday’s low to require being filled from above — which it was, before entering the noon hour. Closing above 1.1385 would signal momentum reversing up.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Already dipping into the 1188.50-1191.50 target area overnight, Wednesday’s gap down extended lower through the morning to attack 1182.50. The 4-day sequence suggests that Thursday will either not probe fresh lows or else recover from fresh lows, and in either case probe positive territory. A corrective bounce into the weekend would target 1208.00.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Even further compensation for the delay in filling the 4-week old gap back to 15.25 opened Wednesday sharply under Tuesday’s 14.97 low to 14.80, and collapsed down to 14.35. Tuesday was somewhat of a breakout, so this is somewhat of confirmation, an at least an eventual third lower close is likely — regardless of an interim corrective bounce.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s gap up extended through Friday’s 144-22 high to test 145-00, then reversed back under Friday’s high. Not closing above 144-22 Wednesday would suggest a top is in, and the breakout isn’t valid.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Already greeting Tuesday’s post-close API data from a position of weakness and reacting poorly, Wednesday’s 50-cent gap down to 66.50 fell another $2 to fresh lows at 64.50 in reaction to the morning’s EIA report. Closing above 66.10 would signal momentum reversing up.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report isn’t being greeted from a position of strength. Tuesday’s premature probe of fresh highs, which barely qualified as a breakout, wasn’t confirmed by a second consecutive higher close Wednesday. Avoiding a deeper pullback Thursday — or recovering from an initially negative knee-jerk reaction — would be the only bullish scenario.

Posted in Bigger Picture, Daily Spot, members-only