Daily Spot: Interest rates

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Signaled a breakout on Tuesday, confirmed Wednesday, and opened the door to a bounce, which was exploited Thursday. It got to 122’20, leaving some room to 123’06 or 124.00. Neither requires a retest, but there is that much upside potential before resuming the decline to at least probe Wednesday’s 120’27 low.

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Gapped up Thursday after probing lower lows overnight, which was a response to Wednesday’s gap up that went nowhere. The overnight dip held its 80.10 pullback limit. A close above 80.90-81.10 would signal the rally had resumed.

Gold Feb (GCG) By maintaining Wednesday’s recovery above 1381.00 indicated its recovery is on-track or intending to fill the gap back to Tuesday morning’s 1427.40 opening gap up, perhaps also probe new high at 1436.50 before triggering a valid downleg.

Crude Oil Jan (CLF) Rejected two consecutive sell setups that equated to a buy setup each time. Their result should produce a retest of Tuesday’s 90.65 opening gap before any downleg can gain traction.

Natural Gas Jan (NGF) Got ahead of itself Wednesday, perhaps a little optimistic – but not overly-optimistic. But a negative reaction to Thursday’s EIA data fell back towards Tuesday’s close. Since the 4.31-4.35 pullback target was barely touched before launching Wednesday’s recovery, and and since Wednesday’s recovery has been retraced, 4.31-4.35 is likely to be probed now more thoroughly. But the pattern’s likely resolution remains up.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).