Daily Spot: Interest rates

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Wednesday’s 2-point intraday rally had expended a lot of energy after filling the gap back down to 119’18. Thursday did not extend higher, but at least its intraday lows held 120’12-120’14 critical support. Rallying sharply through 121’16 would be appropriate Friday to resume the corrective bounce targeting 123’06 and 124’00. Closing under 120’12 would be bearish.

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) The 79.85 pullback target was tested at the open. It was retested into the close, after an interim bounce probed Wednesday’s range. Filling the gap back to Thursday’s open this way neutralizes its attraction below. It is not a buy signal, but it allows an immediate rally to be credible for extending into a durable recovery.

Gold Feb (GCG) Ended the day testing 1407.00 as support. Friday needs to prove that the test held, optimally by closing above Thursday’s 1415.00 high. The next higher objective of the corrective rally would be a test of 1427.40.

Crude Oil Feb (CLG) Waiting for a fresh high to sell is no longer feasible. Thursday’s gap down under Monday’s 90.51 prior low extended down to 89.00 intraday. Lower lows should test 88.65-88.95, and could still recover to retest this week’s ~91.50 highs. But closing under 88.65 would signal the bigger downleg was already underway.

Natural Gas Feb (NGG) Gapped up optimistically ahead of Thursday’s EIA report, suffering its usual consequence of reversing into negative territory. Sellers didn’t gain traction, and a late surge closed 1-2 cents above the open’s 4.33 gap up. Leaving the buying pressure to become pent-up overnight would have been more assured of rallying Friday. Extending higher without delay would still be bullish.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).