Daily Spot: Interest rates
A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]
30-year Treasury Mar (USH) To the lowest bidder. Auction results seemed to upset an otherwise optimistic day, which had initially probed the highest levels in more than a week. Th close still recovered back to 121’14, whose recovery on a closing basis would still target 123’06 and 124’00. Regardless of Thursday’s shortfall, the levitation act is impressive for not yet resuming the drop to 118.00
Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Back to square-one. All that ineffectual optimism above 81.10 made the corrective dip likelier to test 80.00 than just 80.50. Now prior lows are being attacked (while the Euro is relatively further below its prior highs). This area did not require being revisited in order to form a more durable bottom; it has been tested thoroughly already. A fresh low would trigger a new downleg underway. Recovering above 80.00 would be bullish for new highs, but the potential for a long-term recovery has all but disappeared.
Gold Feb (GCG) Third day’s a harm. Wednesday’s retest of 1378.00 hadn’t gained any traction for its efforts. A substantial rally at Thursday’s open seemed to compensate for the delay. It didn’t. A surge to 1393.00 fell back under 1380.00, and went flat into the pit close around 1385.00-1386.00. Tumbling afterwards to test 1370.00 suggests another test of 1365.00 ahead. And 1365.00 might hold again if tested by a gap that hasn’t yet gained traction intraday. But I’ll need to see that test and see that test hold before considering a long-entry.
Crude Oil Feb (CLG) Pushing didn’t come to shoving. Thursday’s retest of Wednesday’s high ended back under 91.70 to signal that buyers had lost traction. Combined with having fully retraced back to natural resistance at the shock drop’s origin, a close under 91.00 should signal Friday that momentum has reversed down.
Natural Gas Feb (NGG) Waiting. No close above 4.55 Thursday – not even its test. But 4.40 was tested again as support. It’s a natural pullback limit from holding resistance. But limiting the pullback is not as important as launching a surge through 4.55 without further delay to avoid sellers gaining traction.
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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).