Daily Spot: Interest rates

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) New downleg averted, for now. Did not confirm Wednesday’s break under 120’14. Rather than extending down to close negative for second consecutive day, Thursday closed back above 120’14. The pattern remains trendless.

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) New upleg averted, for now. Thursday’s new low recovered back above prior lows, but did not close in positive territory. There is no bottom signal. Another new low Friday that closes above Thursday’s 78.10 high would signal a bottom, but the trend otherwise remains down.

Gold Feb (GCH) One day to recover and avoid a deeper decline. Probed its 1320.00 sleeper low intraday, and extended much lower after the close. Recovering 1325’00 Friday would invalidate the break. The trend otherwise remains down, next targeting 1260.00, and probably very quickly.

Crude Oil Feb (CLG) One day’s recovery preempted by a deeper decline. Thursday’s fresh low seems to have resumed the decline targeting 84.00. Closing Friday above 86.65 would put back into play the potential for a corrective bounce targeting 88.60. Without that bounce’s refueling, 84.00‘s test would be likely to launch a sizable bounce.

Natural Gas Feb (NGG) No averting a deeper decline. Thursday’s gap down tested the same 4.43 gap that had been tested and retested, each time holding as support. It was a tenuous level with bearish implications for breaking it. Thursday’s test extended down, breaking it considerably. There are some attractions above – 4.50, 4.58 – that can help to attract a recovery eventually. But the break was a very negative event, likely to test 4.13.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).