Daily Spot: Interest rates
A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]
30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Pessimism ahead of the report, or prescience? This leg is still on track to be the leg that breaks 119’17 support to test the 118’00 target. Thursday’s opening drop recovered briefly into positive territory, only to close back at session lows, the lowest lows in months. Now testing 119’00, the 118’00 target’s test should not be delayed. Meanwhile, Employment Situation report is due Friday. A bounce has room up to 120’02 before sellers would lose traction.
Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Careful what you ask for. Wednesday didn’t confirm Tuesday’s breakout, clearing the way for a recovery. But Thursday’s close was still in the process of testing 77.85, whose recovery was needed to reverse momentum up. And it wasn’t just recently tested – it was still being tested since the mid-morning peak. That’s not the spirit of recovering it. Extending the rally requires either gapping up above 78.30, or dipping first to 77.25-77.45.
Gold Apr (GCJ) The countdown begins. Any dip was likely to refuel buyers for another rally attempt. Already having thoroughly tested 1342.50-1345.00 resistance, its next test was likely to slice higher. Thursday’s dip to 1325.40 soon launched a surge to 1356.60. Dipping back down to test 1342.50-1345.00 as support would help the corrective bounce extend to 1376.00. Otherwise, 1361.50 may be the bounce’s peak.
Crude Oil Mar (CLH) Down, but not out. Wednesday’s recovery from testing 90.75 and 90.15 support made new highs likely. But its 91.35 trigger was probed only overnight, and held as resistance intraday. Thursday’s action mostly ranged narrowly between 90.75 and 90.15. A close above 91.35 would still trigger at least a brief probe of 93.00. But the curious ranging between 90.75 and 90.15 makes it difficult to signal a downleg underway.
Natural Gas Mar (NGH) All that, for that? The repeated tests of 4.32 clearly intended to attempt a run at 4.52-4.55. And any such rally attempt was likely to fail. Thursday’s only surprise is that the attempt peaked short of 4.50 before plummeting. At least some new unfinished business above has been created, back to the 4.47 opening gap. That will help in a recovery, but the trek down to 4.13 remains intact.
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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).