Daily Spot: Interest rates

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Taking advantage. Thursday was not in inside day, but it still held a test of the 119’16 corrective bounce target. Failing to close above 119’16 makes at least a dip to 118’00 likely, if not a new downleg.

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Careful what you ask for. The pullback extended to test 78.00, but didn’t react up. Three days of dipping – not counting the prior day that trended down ever since gapping up – should suffice for being the pullback. And this dip remains shallow enough to be only a pullback.

Gold Apr (GCJ) Gold bugs are made of steel. There is nothing bearish about a higher high like Thursday’s close $7 above the 1376.00 corrective bounce target. It might even be compelling to buy a dip to 1374.50-1376.00, albeit with a very tight stop. But I would also sell a close under 1370.00.

Crude Oil Apr (CLJ) Still firming. March closed above 85.50, and April closed above 88.30, to rob sellers of their traction. A close above 86.50/89.25 would signal momentum reversing up, targeting 92.90-93.45 basis April. Closing under 87.25 basis April would signal the downleg is extending to its next target at 75.00.

Natural Gas Mar (NGH) No wonder there wasn’t a signal. Buyers still haven’t gained traction, and Thursday’s EIA report triggered a spike down to new lows. But a quick recovery spent the balance of the session testing Monday’s prior low as resistance. Combined with neither Monday’s low nor Wednesday’s gap extending down, this now makes three sessions trying to break the 3.90 area, and failing. It’s not a buy signal, but the pattern continues to be vulnerable to at least a corrective bounce up to 4.13.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).