Daily Spot: Interest rates

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Feet, don’t fail me now. Thursday’s opening gap up retested Wednesday’s 121’14 high, and probed new highs, but stopped short of fulfilling the 122’04 target. Combined with spending the entire session in positive territory, this is “ineffectual optimism.” Meeting 122’04 quickly would be vulnerable to a steep move, either up sharply or down sharply. But just dipping from here would more likely recover from testing 120’14.

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) So far down it’s up. The retest of prior lows is complete, and the decline is stretched pretty tightly. A much lower low isn’t needed since the inverted Head & Shoulder’s prior high was also shallow. But almost any strength would be credible for launching a rally.

Gold Apr (GCJ) Like a lead balloon. Thursday’s retest of Wednesday’s 1417.30 high became vulnerable to bad news, and bad news came. Its reaction was exacerbated by the weak base that launched the current rally from 1376.00. Closing back above 1405.50 Friday would resume the rally, or at least its potential to test 1426.00. Closing under 1398.0 – which was avoided Thursday – would trigger a steep decline.

Crude Oil Apr (CLJ) Ding, dong, the witch is dead? Unconfirmed reports of Kaddafi being shot were a perfect bookmark to early news that Saudi Arabia would make up for Libya’s production shortfall. The first news inhibited extending higher, and the second news triggered a steep spike down. Regardless, the 100.50 target has been met, and it has held. The pattern is now likely to pause and retrace before launching a new upleg.

Natural Gas Apr (NGJ) Waiting for an engraved invitation. Another low, another recovery, another non-buy signal. Thursday’s fresh low ended the day testing prior lows as resistance. The gap back to Wednesday’s close was left outstanding, and any early strength would get a benefit of the doubt for extending higher. That behavior would be doubly bullish for being a Friday, whose price action Mondays tend to mimic.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).