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Daily Spot: Interest rates – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot: Interest rates

By Rod David | March 24, 2011 - 6:33 pm

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Bulls procrastinating isn’t bullish. Thursday’s drop continued to deliver the consequences of having delayed 122’00‘s recovery, and of not already having used that time to refuel buyers. The pullback’s 120’17 target was met within 1 tick. Either that would suffice, or a much deeper dip is coming down to 120’09.

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Stuck in a narrow range? Thursday’s cash session reacted to Wednesday’s action not having extended its gap up. At least initially. Thursday morning’s dip stopped short of filling the gap back down to Tuesday’s close, and the afternoon’s recovery stopped short of probing Wednesday’s close. Sort of like being between a rock and a hard place. A fresh high would be credible for resuming the corrective bounce, but I wouldn’t position in anticipation of it without tightly trailing a stop.

Gold Apr (GCJ) Too optimistic, too quickly, too bad. March 7’s actual high was touched Thursday, after Wednesday’s touch of March 2’s pivotal high. Thursday’s probe was rejected solidly since buyers had not refueled in the interim. The close under 1437.00 sealed a top, and already extended down to 1423.70 after hours. Recovering 1438.00 would target fresh highs at 1450.00. Closing under 1424.00 would signal the trend is down and next targeting 1412.00 then 1404.00.

Crude Oil Jun (CLM) Ripe for sellers… three days ago. Thursday was the third consecutive close in the process of testing the corrective bounce’s 105.75 target. A close under 104.50 would signal a new downleg underway.

Natural Gas May (NGK) Too optimistic, too quickly, too bad, II. Thursday’s third consecutive gap up peaked quickly at 4.47, and EIA triggered a spike down to 4.35. The close was still testing 4.35, which needs to hold as support to maintain potential up to 4.55. Recovering 4.40 would signal the test had held, and that momentum had reversed up.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

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