Daily Spot: Interest rates

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Sellers aren’t wasting any time. Thursday’s new lows confirmed Wednesday’s breakout by gapping down. The second consecutive new relative low close confirms the downleg underway next targeting 117’00.

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Rate hike reaction isn’t lasting. It’s not surprising that Thursday’s reaction up on the ECB interest rate hike was not permanent or durable. Higher prior lows that had been tested optimistically on the way down held Thursday as resistance. There remains unfinished business below at 75.50-75.55.

Gold Jun (GCM) Never send ineffectual optimism to do confirmation’s job. Wednesday’s ineffectual optimism undermined its higher close from confirming Tuesday’s breakout, despite closing higher. No surprise, then, that Thursday didn’t extend higher. Any higher high now would be likely to fail substantially. Meahwhile, there is more potential for dipping back to 1447.00-1449.00 and a break under 1447.00 would signal a downleg underway already.

Crude Oil May (CLK) New upleg, or false break? Thursday finally broke to fresh highs after having ranged around the 108.25-108.50 target area since Sunday night. Not having rejected the higher highs intraday allows room up to 113.00 before a reversal back under 108.25 can seal a top.

Natural Gas May (NGK) Nowhere to go but down. Extended down Thursday to its next objective at 4.08, and then some. It was the second consecutive fresh low close below the prior range, confirming Wednesday’s break. At least one more lower low is required. One more lower target is in-play at 3.97, whose test may fulfill the drop. A bottom Friday is possible, but not likely.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).