Daily Spot: Interest rates

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) False start, may have stopped the bounce. Wednesday’s recovery of 119’18 triggered a gap up at Thursday’s open. A spike up was required to extend the rally. The balance of the session ranged sideways to repeatedly test the 119’25 area as support. While sellers have lost traction, buyers missed an opportunity to gain traction. Closing back under 119’18 would signal momentum reversing down, confirmed under 119’04 and targeting 117’00. Otherwise, another rally effort Friday would be likely to test 120’25 before the decline could resume.

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Still no bottom, still possible. Thursday’s session extended the trend down to new lows instead of exploiting Wednesday’s probe of fresh highs for the week. No recovery is required, but not forming a reversal setup would make Monday likely to probe new lows, too. Friday’s close under all prior lows means that gapping up would leave unfinished business below.

Gold Jun (GCM) Compensating for the rally’s delay. Wednesday’s retest of 1455.00 needed to produce a rally almost immediately to maintain potential for new highs to attack 1480.00. Thursday’s open did rally, and extended $20 higher intraday. The rally stopped pessimistically short of probing prior highs, making new highs likelier.

Crude Oil May (CLK) A bigger bounce has little time to delay. A rally needed to begin almost immediately Thursday, to begin at all. The open gapped down, but trended up from there. The rally’s penultimate target at 108.25-108.50 was tested intraday. Back under 107.00-107.50 would signal another downleg underway. Otherwise, the bounce should extend up to 111.00.

Natural Gas May (NGK) Don’t blink, you’ll miss it. The first interesting move this week may have peaked already. Thursday’s EIA report reversed a pessimistic open that had probed fresh lows. The 3.97 target wasn’t fulfilled, but the 4.07 target was retested before recovering back up to 4.25. Closing above 4.25 would suggest an upleg was underway. Otherwise, a steep drop down to 3.97 could begin into the weekend.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).