Daily Spot: Interest rates

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Not aggressive, so not confident. Not having rallied more aggressively into the 124’00 target, the 125’06 target was unsure. Thursday’s open nonetheless extended up to 124’11. And after ranging sideways in positive territory through the close, post-close action extended up to 124’19 as stocks plunged to new lows.

If stocks extend higher overnight, then the bond’s post-close highs may disappear before Friday’s open. And the 124’00 target hasn’t been exceeded, so much as ranged around. Closing under 124’02 would target 123’02. Otherwise, the 125’06 target may be in-play.

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Four days of bottoming gets rewarded well. Thursday’s open spiked up sharply to fresh highs, and extended sharply higher throughout the day. So long as pullbacks hold 73.80, the next higher objective is 74.85.

Gold Jun (GCM) A lot heavier than it looks. Still no bottoming as a $53 drop unfolds intraday. Closing above 1480.00 would signal momentum reversing up, targeting 1500.00. Otherwise, the next lower objective is 1454.00.

Crude Oil Jun (CLM) Dry well. Tuesday’s 112.40 sell signal, confirmed Wednesday under 111.65 extended down Thursday to 98.25. That’s March’s low, and also natural support capable of producing a bounce up to 102.15 without the drop losing traction, or up to 104.50 without a rally gaining traction. The next lower targets are 94.40 and 92.00.

Natural Gas Jun (NGM) Its own worst enemy, again. Wednesday’s continuation pattern from 4.67 extended down sharply Thursday to 4.21, closing at 4.25. This was the rally’s original buy signal, and the pattern is now awaiting another signal.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).