Daily Spot: Interest rates

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Still stuck in its range. Wednesday night’s fresh high up to 124’22 came within ticks of last week’s high. But it disappeared by the open, which reacted to the morning’s econ reports by dropping to 123’16. Last week’s high was never touched, let alone probed. But there remains potential to test 125’06 so long as 123’02 isn’t broken as support.

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Flat-to-higher consolidation. Thursday’s open quickly extended Wednesday’s rally. Then it quickly reversed down. But Monday’s high held as support, so sellers did not gain traction for their efforts. The rally might not resume without delay, but an intraday pullback Friday should recover.

Gold Jun (GCM) Another big save. Despite extending Wednesday’s considerable drop almost as considerably, Thursday’s close recovered well into positive territory. The $30 range from 1477.00 to 1507.00 reinforces Wednesday’s test of the 1497.00-1500.00 pullback target. Closing above 1515.00 and 1519.00 would still signal and confirm a bigger corrective rally underway targeting 1557.00-1560.00. Otherwise, Friday could be a slow, narrow day.

Crude Oil Jun (CLM) Sell-off averted, wasting buying pressure. Thursday morning’s drop down to 95.25 was substantial, and it probed prior intraday lows. But it stopped short of touching overnight lows before bouncing up to 100.50. Sellers lost a lot of traction, but buyers didn’t gain any, so a narrow range Friday is likely.

Natural Gas Jun (NGM) Opening the door to an upleg. Narrow ranging Thursday avoided probing new lows. Now that an extended narrow range has formed, a fresh low would be easier to recover, and to reverse up back to 4.25 and 4.50.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).