Daily Spot: Interest rates
A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]
30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Hunkering down ahead of Employment. Wednesday’s close above 125’20 was followed by Tuesday’s close under 125’10, another target failing to extend higher the following day. The entire retracement from Tuesday’s 126’06 high reached 124’27. It is potentially bullish that the low filled the gap back to Tuesday’s close. Nevertheless, the rally did lose traction. But a pullback has room down to 124’20 before triggering a decline underway. Meanwhile, back above 125’12 would trigger a probe of new highs.
Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Teasing at the fringes. Thursday was the third consecutive session spent consolidating under 74.75. It also probed fresh lows. And its low also held above the prior low. That last element has been the only potentially bullish factor, preventing the decline from gaining new traction. It also formed “ineffectual pessimism” – gapping down, ranging entirely in negatively territory, and probing fresh lows, all without closing under prior lows. But a rally must trigger Friday to put new highs into play, and to avoid extending down sharply.
Gold Aug (GCQ) Correcting the correction. Wednesday’s reaction down from fresh highs above 1551.50 was extended down Thursday to 1520.40. Despite the massive selling, the intraday probe under 1528.50-1531.00 was recovered through the close. If the corrective rally targeting 1558.00-1560.00 remains in-play, then it should recover without delay Friday.
Crude Oil Jul (CLN) On-again is off, again. Wednesday’s drop back to last Friday’s 100.47 close eventually extended down Thursday to probe under last Friday’s lows down to 98.46. The entire dip was retraced to close positive on the day. Impressive, except that the morning’s high was not recovered, so buyers gained no traction for their efforts. Breaking under 99.35 would target 88.75 so long as 101.50 is not recovered.
Natural Gas Jul (NGN) Big rally for a big target. Wednesday’s pullback held its 4.58 limit to maintain the rally’s next target at 4.80. A spike up through it on EIA settled back to close at 4.80. Closing almost any higher Friday would signal that new sponsorship was arriving to extend the rally sharply higher without any new refueling, potentially targeting 6.00. A pullback otherwise has room down to 4.63.
[/pay]
Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…
Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).