Daily Spot: Interest rates

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.

[pay]30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) RSIs had not deteriorated during Wednesday’s repeated probes above 132’28, making another failed probe likely. Thursday’s higher high wasn’t technically confirmed, so it doesn’t require a retest.

Price action was an even bigger problem. More than repeating Wednesday’s failed probes above 132’28, Thursday’s failure also probed Wednesday’s high. And the intraday high peaked upon testing the next higher target at 133’20. That’s a lot of buying pressure to expend, and to satisfy, without gaining any traction for the effort.

At least a dip down to 131’20 is almost obligatory, regardless of its resolution – either to gain more traction towards fulfilling the 128’14 target, or to launch a more substantial rally leg. Extending higher isn’t likely without gapping up.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Still ranging sideways around its higher target, trended up intraday while remaining within the range, which wasted buying pressure.

Crude Oil Nov (CLX) Peaked intraday within pennies of 75.65, whose recovery would signal a much larger rally underway. A close under 74.25-74.50 would signal the Head & Shoulders pattern was breaking lower.

Natural Gas Oct (NGV) More optimism by way of a momentary spike up on EIA data. Although the gain was quickly rejected, it was only rejected, and the pattern has yet to incorporate any consequences for the impatient optimism.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Ranged sideways. Must avoid closing under 79.93 to maintain the bottoming.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).