Daily Spot: Metals
A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]
Gold Feb (GCG) It’s a good start, if it holds up. An overnight rally produced a gap open Tuesday well above the 1378.00 buy signal, and much nearer to the 1387.50-1390.00 first corrective bounce target. A pullback all the way down to 1372.40 filled the open’s gap back to Monday’s 1374.10 close, and still recovered to close back above the 1381.70 open.
These elements are bullish. Seemingly excessive optimism was restrained, a bearish gap was quickly filled and held intraday, and buyers did not lose traction. Tuesday’s extra dip to fill its opening gap, coupled with its close back above 1378.00, suggests the 1403.00-1404.00 corrective bounce target is likelier to be met.
There is some risk that Tuesday afternoon’s recovery expended much needed buying pressure that might have been more bullish to leave pent-up overnight. Just need to avoid closing back under 1378.00.
Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Exhale, already. Yet another strong open, yet again retraced to end the day testing 81.10 support. Corrective dip down to 80.50 may be avoided by breaking higher from this narrow extended consolidation. But that would not produce a durable rally.
30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Time’s up. 121’14 held yet another test as resistance, and reacted down much harder than its prior two tests. A bounce from 120’09 recovered to end the day testing 121’00, Monday and Friday afternoon’s lows. Back under 120’14 would signal momentum reversing down. Closing back above 121’14 would signal a bigger bounce underway targeting 123’06 and 124’00.
Crude Oil Feb (CLG) A bigger bounce, but a bounce. Tuesday’s gap up above 89.35-89.40 put into play the 91.00 corrective bounce target. Its test wasn’t rejected, thanks to a last-minute surge. Being only a last-minute surge, early weakness Wednesday would be credible for reversing it. Otherwise, potential to extend the bounce up to 91.70.
Natural Gas Feb (NGG) Yes, more of that, please. 4.40‘s thorough testing needed to launch a new upleg without much more delay, if any. Tuesday morning’s dip recovered into positive territory into the afternoon, extending higher to test 4.48. It’s a good start, but it’s just a start and needs to extend higher without delay.
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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).