Daily Spot: Metals

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Gold Feb (GCH) Big targets met, and held. The drop has fulfilled both the 1333.00 and 1325.00 targets. A bounce to 1342.50-1345.00 is likely before extending down to the next target, probes under 1322.00.

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) The pause that refreshes. Having triggered another breakout Friday that was confirmed Monday, Tuesday was free to refuel sellers. The intraday bounce was retraced to close essentially unchanged. At least one more lower low is required of the pattern. It would be a durable bottom if recovered to close in positive territory. Otherwise, the trend remains down.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Too big to fail? Monday’s close had stretched buyers to their thinnest. Wednesday’s gap up above prior highs was soon retraced into negative territory. Rather than extend down, another intraday rally recovered to close above the morning’s high, and above 121’14. A second consecutive higher close would give buyers a benefit of the doubt. Otherwise, failing to extend higher Wednesday could find the balance of the week playing catch-up to the bearish signal.

Crude Oil Feb (CLG) Tired, old sellers. Monday’s pattern had confirmed that no new sponsorship was taking control of the downleg. Having become extended, it became vulnerable to a corrective bounce. Tuesday’s gap down and narrow ranging makes a recovery above 86.90 likely to target 88.60.

Natural Gas Feb (NGG) Playing with fire. The 4.40 gap was filled Wednesday. A close above 4.53 (4.57 basis Mar) would now signal the correction had ended. Otherwise, any close under 4.40 would signal a new downleg underway.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).