Daily Spot: Metals
A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]
Gold Apr (GCJ) Light as a feather, for less than a moment. Gap up immediately fulfilled the outstanding potential to 1376.00. It was not in-play, but sellers had yet to regain control.
Monday’s inside day of “ineffectual optimism” prevented the open’s gap from extending up. Excessive optimism prevented the intraday dip from extending down.
Dipping back under prior highs to 1366.50-1368.00 would be attracted higher to fill the gap back to Tuesday’s 1375.50 open. Then a close under 1370.00 would signal momentum reversing down, or closing above 1376.00 would signal the rally extending higher.
Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Not tolerating descent. Monday’s “ineffectual optimism” was corrected somewhat by Tuesday’s ineffectual pessimism. The open gapped down, prior lows were probed, and the entire session was spent in negative territory. The intraday 78.40 low touched the inverted Head & Shoulders neckline as support. That is sufficient for the rally to extend higher. But a lower low to 78.30 that recovers to close back above 78.65 would be more constructive.
30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Shaky ground, but still standing. Having eked higher Monday to fulfill the 119’04 bounce target, optimism was kept in-check. This left plenty of buying pressure available to absorb Tuesday’s gap down. In fact, the intraday high probed Monday’s high. Sellers still haven’t gained traction, and buyers still haven’t expended excessive energy, making 119’16‘s test likelier.
Crude Oil Mar (CLH) Next target, please. The long-standing 84.00 target was finally met Tuesday, and it held as support through the close. That is not a buy signal. And a bounce has room up to 85.50 without sellers losing traction. But any higher would confirm the low is in, and above 86.00 would signal momentum reversing up. Closing under 83.50 would signal the downleg extending, its next major target being 75.00.
Natural Gas Mar (NGH) In the absence of selling. The pattern is still likelier to bounce than to extend the decline, albeit for only a corrective bounce. But there is no pattern or setup to indicate its start.
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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).