Daily Spot: Metals
A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]
Gold Apr (GCJ) Not exactly noise. There was room for noise to fluctuate up to 1426.00 so long as 1405.50 held as support. And a dip tested 1405.50 after Monday’s close. An overnight rally created a gap up that extended higher to probe 1426.00 up to 1433.40.
The session closed at highs, before extending higher. That’s not quite noise. Now there is room up to 1435.00 so long as pullbacks hold 1423.00 as support. And with Tuesday’s new high being a breakout, a second consecutive higher close is needed to confirm. Closing back under 1416.50 would instead signal momentum reversing down, in a very big way.
Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Sellers stall, but can buyers exploit it? Monday’s first new relative low close was a breakout. It went unconfirmed without a consecutive lower close Tuesday. Its gap down probed Monday’s low but closed positive, back above last week’s prior lows. This is not a buy signal, but initial strength Wednesday would be credible for extending higher intraday. Gaps outstanding above can attract price higher, and should if a bottom is in. Otherwise, the decline will likely accelerate its pace.
30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Two wrongs make a top. The rally’s 120’17 target (basis Jun, 122’04 basis Mar) was retested again, and again it was outside of regular trading hours. The rally could still extend higher. But this pattern would require a new rally leg to begin suddenly, to rally steeply and to rally substantially to 122’14. Otherwise, closing back under 119’26 would signal momentum reversing down again, confirmed under 118’26, and targeting new lows.
Crude Oil Apr (CLJ) Getting closer. The ongoing consolidation still has room to dip further, but time is growing short before the next rally leg should be underway.
Natural Gas Apr (NGJ) Getting further. Failing to hold 3.98 has robbed buyers of any traction gained by Friday’s bounce. But sellers still have yet to gain their own traction, and closing back above 3.98 would signal another rally effort underway targeting 4.21.
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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).