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Daily Spot: Metals – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot: Metals

By Rod David | March 9, 2011 - 7:22 pm

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Gold Apr (GCJ) Fallen, and can’t get up. A third consecutive close under 1435.00 Wednesday continues to indicate that buyers have lost traction. Failing to exploit the weakness suggests there is some unfinished business above.

Not that fresh highs would gain traction – in fact, I would expect a probe of higher highs above 1445.00 to be rejected back under 1436.00 – but a probe of higher highs gets likelier the longer a downleg is delayed.

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Too soon to get up. Spending the entire session in negative territory Wednesday without trending down bordered on being “ineffectual pessimism.” But lower lows down to 76.40 or 76.29 are likely. Maybe even to 76.21. Test and hold any of these, and a durable bottom can form.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Fallen, and trying to get up. Another close under 118’26 failed to confirm as expected, suggesting there is unfinished business above. There is room for noise back up to 119’26, but closing any higher would trigger a new upleg targeting 121’06 and higher. Thursday’s econ calendar is the week’s busiest, and includes a 30-year auction at 1:00pm ET.

Crude Oil Apr (CLJ) If only. Wednesday’s inside day gapped up for the session’s lone display of optimism. The balance of the day trended down. It was almost “ineffectual pessimism,” still capable of resolving up, but not required. Fresh highs would target 107.25 and 111.45.

Natural Gas Apr (NGJ) Can’t get up for anything. Tuesday’s close under 3.93 was too suspicious to automatically consider that sellers had gained traction. Wednesday’s opening surge proved they had not. There was only a little follow-through, but none if it was retraced. The opportunity wasn’t exploited otherwise. Buyers would gain traction above 4.03. Thursday’s EIA report should get something going either way.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

Posted in Daily Spot