Daily Spot: Metals

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Gold Apr (GCJ) Breaking down is easy to do-ooo. Tuesday’s bounce off of its lows closed under 1399.00 to maintain the downleg that is next targeting 1376.00 and 1343.50-1345.00. Intraday a bounce Wednesday has potential to 1406.00, but now must close under 1387.00 for sellers to gain further traction.

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Badly timed bounce. Monday’s extended dip back to the 76.60 “pivotal low” (the low prior to the actual low) all but requires an eventual test of the 76.46 actual low. Tuesday’s gap up to 77.29 was retraced entirely, instead of  closing above 77.05 to invalidate the attraction back to the low.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) If they could all be this quick. Two consecutive closes above 119’26 had put into play 122’00. Tuesday’s open gapped up to the target, which tends to expend more energy than it creates. Retest of “lower prior highs” and filling the gap back to Monday’s ~120’21 close is likely to produce a retest of 122’00 as resistance.

Crude Oil Apr (CLJ) One more down would be one big down. Tuesday’s close under 99.00 signals a steeper and deeper downleg underway. The signal still needs confirmation from a second consecutive lower close Wednesday. Recovering 100.00 would invalidate the signal.

Natural Gas May (NGK) The signal couldn’t get any closer. Tuesday’s recovery from probing Monday afternoon’s lows as support, to probing 4.02 as resistance, is more evidence that sellers aren’t gaining any traction. But it isn’t yet a buy signal.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).