Daily Spot: Metals
A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]
Gold Apr (GCJ) Not much higher before more toppiness. Tuesday’s close was barely flat after probing fresh lows. A new downleg wasn’t going to get underway immediately, despite Monday’s ineffectual optimism. The session avoided closing under 1424.00 which would have signaled buyers losing momentum. One more rally effort would target 1437.00-1438.00.
Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Selling pressure seems to be waning. Tuesday’s gap down immediately created unfinished business below. A rally would be inhibited by wanting to retest Tuesday’s 75.54 opening print. That may be what prevented the immediate recovery into positive territory from extending higher intraday. The balance of the session ranged very narrowly just above Monday’s close. A quick dip Wednesday that reverses back above 75.70 would be credible for launching a durable rally.
Japanese Yen (JYM) Maybe not the peak, but some intervention retrace is likely. The recent intervention’s to 1.2765-1.2785 was quickly retraced to back under all prior highs at 1.2200. The effect created an Island. A consolidation just under 1.2380 has had ample time to extend down if that were the next intention. A bounce to 1.2550 would refuel sellers for a bigger drop. Extending down first would target 1.2150-1.2160 where a more durable rally could be launched.
30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Do buyers need a further refueling dip? Tuesday’s inside day once again held 121’08, and once again further delayed a recovery back above 122’00 targeting 125’00. A dip down to 120’17 can’t be ruled out, and failing to hold it would target 119’18 before the next rally leg could begin.
Crude Oil Jun (CLM) Bounce target met. Tuesday’s gap down was absorbed and reversed up to fresh highs at the 105.75 target (basis Jun, 104.50 basis Mar). That was the minimum objective for a corrective bounce, and back under 103.05 would signal a new downleg underway. Delaying a new downleg would allow the bounce time to fluctuate up to prior highs at 108.75.
Natural Gas May (NGK) Giving optimists a benefit of the doubt. Tuesday afternoon’s rally to new highs at 4.35 signaled the rally has resumed, next targeting 4.40 and potentially 4.55. A deeper pullback first would have helped to refuel buyers, but the rally remains intact so long as 4.28 holds as support. Closing any lower would target 4.20 and potentially 4.09-4.13.
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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).