Daily Spot: Metals

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Gold Apr (GCJ) A well-deserved inside day. Monday’s 1411.00 gap open was tested before Tuesday’s open. Its natural support absorbed selling pressure to produce a bounce back up to Monday’s highs. Once again, 1324.00 was attacked but not recovered, and once again 1416.00 held as support. Closing under 1412.00 would trigger a downleg next targeting 1404.00. Above 1424.00 would target 1437.00.

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Tempered optimism. Monday’s 76.65 gap open was retested at Tuesday’s gap up. The balance of the session ranged narrowly sideways. Although it all developed exclusively in positive territory, after gapping up, it was not “ineffectual optimism” since no fresh high was probed. Avoiding a close under 76.35 would allow at least one more higher high at 77.00.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Too slow to sell. Tuesday’s opening dip gapped down and the gap was recovered into positive territory. Price then trended down to new lows at 119’19. A bounce into the close was ranging narrowly around the 119’25 sell signal, preventing the 119’24 close from triggering it clearly. That doesn’t rob sellers of their traction, but it does help to absorb selling pressure. The optimal bottom would probe a fresh low and then recover to close positive.

Crude Oil Jun (CLM) Shorts are trapped, just need to be squeezed. Tuesday’s gap down to the 103.00 area was either extending a downleg, or confirming that Monday’s gap down was a false break. Monday’s ~104.85  highs weren’t recovered, but they were still being tested at the close. Extending immediately higher Wednesday would target a retest of recent highs around 108.50. Otherwise, a decline may yet be forming.

Natural Gas May (NGK) A correction-like drop. Monday’s reaction down from the rally’s 4.55 target extended lower Tuesday. Not as steeply, albeit just as productively, dropping another 15 cents down to 4.25. I’m still monitoring for a new setup. Meanwhile, the quick drop makes a new downleg less likely.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).