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Daily Spot: Metals – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot: Metals

By Rod David | April 5, 2011 - 6:08 pm

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Gold Jun (GCM) Seems a little quick, but new highs are not a sell signal. A big day Tuesday, which caught a surge in reaction to 10:00’s econ report. The surge probed recent resistance at 1439.00, whose recovery would target 1455.00. And that target was met, too. Closing under 1449.00 and 1447.00 would reverse momentum down. Otherwise, the next higher target is 1463.50.

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Sunny side up, usually ends down. Not having probed Thursday’s low Monday, no shorts were trapped to be squeezes, so Monday’s firming was likely to retrace. And it did retrace Tuesday, almost back down to Monday’s low. Almost, but still no probing under Monday’s low, so still no trapped shorts. That’s still too optimistic for a bottom, so a rally might not form prior to probing 75.75, 75.55, or even 75.00.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Day late, and a point short. Tuesday’s open tried to extend higher after Monday’s close had failed to close above 120’16. So, the morning’s probe above prior highs around 120’25 was reversed back into negative territory to test 119’25 as support. Closing under 119’25 would signal a new downleg underway targeting 117’00. Otherwise, room to fluctuate back up to 120’16.

Crude Oil May (CLK) Holding its target, but not yet toppy. Nothing new Tuesday, except a little more volatility. Otherwise, the session only retested the same 108.25-108.50 target area that has been tested since Sunday night. There’s still potential for forming a top in this area, but there is not yet any signal.

Natural Gas May (NGK) Cutting it close for accumulation. Closed Tuesday under 4.25, but still above the two prior intraday tests of 4.25. Closing above 4.34 would signal the selling was finally absorbed, and closing above 4.44 would trigger a new upleg.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

Posted in Daily Spot