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Daily Spot: Metals – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot: Metals

By Rod David | April 19, 2011 - 6:27 pm

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Gold Jun (GCM) Shallow at the top. Tuesday’s session ranged narrowly, flat to higher, and nearly touched the 1500.80 objective before closing back under Monday’s highs. The session offered no new information. A close under 1485.50 is needed to signal momentum reversing down.

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) False break, or premature? Suspicions surrounding Monday’s rally effort were refueled by Tuesday’s gap down that extended back to Monday’s intraday lows. That’s far short of filling gaps below and probing lows down to 74.80-75.00. It’s also nearly an inside day, which would qualify as “ineffectual pessimism.” Regardless, Monday’s break wasn’t confirmed, and lower lows remain likely so long as bounces now hold any test of 76.50-76.60.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Not acting like a breakout. Monday’s recovery bled into Tuesday’s session by simply firming throughout the day. The second consecutive close above 120’25 now puts into play a test of 122’02 so long as 120’16 holds as support. The rally potential would become suspect again on any close under 120’25.

Crude Oil Jun (CLM) One more shot at extending the bounce. Monday’s pullback needed to be recovered without delay to prevent sellers from gaining traction. Tuesday’s open gapped down, but immediately began trending up to close positive. Resistance at 108.85-109.10 held its test intraday. Extending higher without delay would maintain potential to 111.65 before launching a bigger downleg.

Natural Gas May (NGK) Too much, too soon. Tuesday morning’s gap up extended higher to retrace all of Monday morning’s plunge. The afternoon was spent testing 4.25 as resistance, happening to close above it. A second consecutive close above 4.25 would confirm a new rally leg underway. Otherwise, there remains unfinished business at 3.97.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

Posted in Daily Spot