Daily Spot: Metals
A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]
Gold Jun (GCM) Signs of a top, room for a bounce. Monday’s post-close plunge down to 1534.80 didn’t extend down overnight. In fact, its retest Tuesday morning produced a bounce that almost touched the 1551.40 overnight highs. But Tuesday’s post-close action fell to fresh lows at 1527.10.
Wednesday’s open can make it obvious this is a significant low by rallying sharply without delay – probably without touching the overnight low. Otherwise, the only other bottoming setup would recover to close above 1527.10 after probing 1525.00 support intraday.
A corrective bounce would have potential to 1557.00-1560.00. Closing above 1566.00-1569.00 would no longer be corrective, and at least target new highs. Not bottoming Wednesday would put into play 1508.00.
Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Trying to exploit weak, weak sellers. Tuesday’s gap up above 73.25-73.30 served by proxy as if Monday’s Pivot Reversal had recovered more than just positive territory. That didn’t prevent an intraday dip back under Friday’s close to test Thursday’s 73.00 low. But the close still recovered 73.25-73.30. Now a fresh high above 73.50 – preferably without delay at Wednesday’s open – would signal a new upleg underway. Delaying a rally would be vulnerable to new trend lows under 72.90.
30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Strong start avoided a weak finish. Extending the rally any further above 122’28 depended upon accelerating its pace aggressively. Tuesday’s gap up was an appropriate method. But its gap up extended only slight higher to test 123’04. A dip back into Monday’s range was recovered to retest the open, without extending higher. The setup is “ineffectual optimism,” and not extending higher aggressively at Wednesday’s open would otherwise reverse down sharply.
Crude Oil Jun (CLM) The biggest reaction down, yet. Tuesday’s open gapped down to test 112.40, whose break would signal that the bounce had ended. The ranging persisted until a late-afternoon plunge down to 110.30. More important was closing under 111.65, which signals a new downleg underway, so long as 112.45 isn’t recovered on a closing basis.
Natural Gas Jun (NGM) The pause that should have refreshed by now. Tuesday’s narrow range repeated Monday’s behavior. It was bullish Monday to have avoided participating in other negative reactions. Now it is bordering on overkill. One more session without resuming the rally to 4.80 would be bearish.
[/pay]
Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…
Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).