Daily Spot: Metals
A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]
Gold Jun (GCM) Volatile, in a wide range. Tuesday’s big drop probed prior lows intraday, but really just ranged around the prior lows and held their tests through the close without closing lower. The drop’s actual 1-1/2 week old 1462.50 overnight low has yet to be retested intraday, so sellers haven’t gained any new traction. This compares to Silver’s identical prior low which was already tested, suggesting that Gold is lagging, and that retesting its prior low could form a better bottom.
Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Sitting that one out. Tuesday’s relative flat range spent a lot of time in positive territory, under prior highs. So, buyers didn’t really expend a lot of energy. Ultimately the session closed while in the process of testing Monday’s close.
30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Decision time. Tuesday tested the 125’06 objective for the first time in this leg, closing above it. It was also the first breakout above the 1-1/2 week old range. A second consecutive higher close would confirm the breakout’s 126’30 target. It would also confirm the next higher objective at 128’08-128’12. Closing under 124’20 would signal momentum reversing down, confirmed under 124’12.
Crude Oil Jun (CLM) Preparing for underwater drilling. Fresh lows Tuesday stopped optimistically short of touching two-week old lows, overnight lows that have yet to be retested intraday. That is now the second instance of inappropriately-timed optimism. The prior instance had momentum behind it, and this one had proximity. Optimism is not the stuff of a bottom, so this consolidation remains likely to break lower into a new downleg next targeting 93.75 and potentially 88.00.
Natural Gas Jun (NGM) False alarm? Or a warning shot at bears. Monday’s close above 4.25-4.30, whose RSIs diverged negatively, did reverse down sharply to attack last week’s lows. The recovery attempt still reflects sellers losing traction, and buyers stepping up their own efforts. But one more intraday dip under 4.15 lows could be bullish – if its dip were recovered to close positive above 4.18, trapping shorts that can fuel a recovery targeting 4.50 and 4.80.
[/pay]
Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…
Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).