Daily Spot… Something about Greece
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down on Greece”s weekend events fulfilled the minimum objective of testing the 1.1050 prior low. That was retraced entirely back into positive territory attacking 1.1300. That was a 61.8% swing into positive territory from the overnight low, suggesting an inflection point where either the recovery accelerates or else fails miserably.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gappiing up sharply Sunday night in reaction to Greece”s developments probed $4 above the 1183.70 resistance that has defined prior swings. Its complete retracement back to unchanged at 1173.50 bounced back into positive territory through the afternoon, retracing 61.8% back to overnight highs — but not yet invalidating the 1158.50 target that remains in-play.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sunday night”s gap up and follow-through were very shallow considering the reactions and other swings developing elsewhere on the Greece news. But that muted response is entirely appropriate for waiting out Gold”s deeper issues so that both can rally in unison. The afternoon”s dip back toward Friday”s low was essentially an inside day with no new traction.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up back above last Monday”s 149-24 close that had been recovered once was itself worthy of some follow-through. Gapping up also above what had been the 150-08 buy signal to a 4-point gain at 151-22 was difficult to maintain. In fact, it reacted down to 149-07. That was recovered to 150-26, where a second consecutive higher close above 150-08 would signal a new rally leg underway. It would get a benefit of the doubt, but still be suspicious if not also above 151-22 — and meanwhile, simply trending back down to 147-24 is likelier.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The ongoing retracement extended deeper at Sunday night”s open, still stopping short of forming any distributive pattern that would offer a sell signal and target. Still monitoring for a buy signal, which is unlikely the first day following a gap down.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Sunday night helped to reject Friday”s retest of 2.77 support. But closing above 2.83 is still required to signal momentum actually reversing up. It was probed intraday by a penny, but still being overlapped through the afternoon.