Daily Spot updates
Some of the overnight action requires updating.
[pay]Euro — Out of the woods, only to enter another forest… A confirmed break above 1.3333 would have put into play 1.3425. But 1.3425 was already touched overnight. And it is being probed this morning up to 1.3477. The next higher objective on a confirmed close above 1.3425 would be 1.3485 and 1.3575. But let’s not yet discount the significant resistance at 1.3333 and 1.3425. Closing today or Monday under 1.3425 would be likely also to close the same session under 1.3333.
Crude Oil — Flying a little too close to the sun… A break above the 103.00 target had been expected. But excessive optimism prevented any hesitation before its recovery triggered a new buy signal targeting 111.00. The signal has been very productive, too, extending up to 109.00 without little delay. I had noted after yesterday’s close how much room a pullback would have without reversing momentum down. Fresh highs today have raised the pullback limit up to 107.35. And that would be raised up to 107.85 if 109.35 were touched. None of which would undermine the potential for fulfilling the 111.00 target (where there is potential for a massive price collapse).
Gold — This is no time to rest on its laurels… Tuesday’s price action under 1760.00 had put into play 1778.00-1780.00, which was tested almost immediately after Wednesday’s close. Closing above it Thursday put into play new highs targeting 1811.50/1825.50. I just want to clarify that closing today above 1790.00 would further confirm. But closing under 1778.00 could reverse momentum down.
S&Ps — The uncommon denominator… While not technically part of the commodity coverage, I do want to address the perception that the Euro has “decoupled” from S&Ps. No two “coupled” markets need trade in unison without interruption. I always suggest the two-day rule for filtering out divergences and outperformance. While the Euro has accelerated the pace of its recent upleg, it is testing resistance (1.3333 and 1.3425) while S&Ps attack a narrower resistance (1369.00-1371.00). Regardless of their different trajectories upon approaching each target, reacting down in unison would confirm the two markets have not decoupled.
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