Daily Spot: Week ender.
A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere…[pay] The week ended with a whimper, and hardly reflected any of the bangs that developed each day.
Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) The week contained the end of a corrective dip, a retest of its low, and its reactive bounce. The bounce ended as quickly as it began, ranging narrowly sideways since gapping up on Wednesday. A close above 80.90 would signal the next rally leg underway, but the delay suggests one more dip to 80.10 is needed to dump ballast. Having already tested 80.10 overnight, it had better be recovered quickly to avoid dipping under support.
Gold Feb (GCG) 1381.00 held another test as support Friday. Its support defines last week’s drop as being only a correction. And it maintains potential for retesting last week’s 1427.40 high opening gap up to 1436.50. A close above 1398.00 would signal the high’s retest in-play. A retest of last week’s high would be likely to hold as resistance, and then launch a durable reversal leg down.
30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Thursday’s bounce didn’t extend higher Friday, but the decline did not resume. The inside day ranged very narrowly sideways, without sloping up or down which might have signaled one resolution or the other. Tuesday and Wednesday’s breakout and confirmation require at least one more new low to print, so recovering from a fresh low Monday could rob sellers of their traction. Otherwise, the trend remains down.
Crude Oil Jan (CLF) Monday and Tuesday’s failed sell setups suggested that sellers weren’t yet capable of retaking control. The resulting environment tends to resolve any unfinished business above. This makes a retest likely of Tuesday’s 90.65 opening gap. Friday’s weakness held a test of Wednesday’s 87.50 low, whose break could trigger a bigger corrective dip.
Natural Gas Jan (NGF) Tuesday night’s dip held the upper-end of its 4.31-4.35 pullback target. The dip was shallow, but just deep enough to avoid being too optimistic. Wednesday’s gap up was too optimistic. Thursday’s opening strength was blind-sided by EIA. Friday’s follow-through retested 4.35 before closing back above Thursday’s low. A credible rally leg could begin without delay, but another intraday recovery from a lower low would be preferable.
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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).