Daily Spot: Week ender.
A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]
Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Thursday’s probe of prior highs didn’t follow-through intraday. But Friday’s did. Its intraday test of 80.90 (up to 81.00) held resistance, stopping short of signaling that the correction from Nov 30’s high had ended. Just closing above 80.60 was already bullish, and Mondays in this market tend to duplicate Fridays, so the rally should extend higher so long as 80.60 holds as support.
Gold Feb (GCG) Thursday’s close was still in the process of testing 1372.00-1374.00 prior lows as resistance. Friday’s session recovered from another dip to attack 1380.00, stopping short of recovering 1381.00 which would target 1407.00.
30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Thursday’s recovery of Wednesday’s new lows under 119’12-119’20 needed to extend noticeably higher without delay Friday. It did, gaining nearly 2 points on the day. The corrective bounce’s minimum target is 123’06, and potentially also 124’00, so long as pullbacks hold tests of 120’26. (By the way, Barron’s this week includes the following item: “Larry Jeddeloh, chief investment officer of the Institutional Strategist, notes that it’s a “double cycle” day, with both a full moon and a lunar eclipse, which sometimes can indicate turning points in markets. Though he’s not a “moonie,” he says bearish sentiment on bonds is near extremes of 2007, and that could be a setup for a potential bond rally.”)
Crude Oil Feb (CLG) Rolling coverage to Feb, which trades at a 70-cent premium to Jan. An overnight dip to 87.70 probed under 88.20, whose break would target the 86.25 area. Its complete recovery into the open left all hint of volatility behind for the day. The extended narrowing range is likely to break falsely first, so a more durable downleg would be likely if 91.10-91.35 were tested next.
Natural Gas Jan (NGF) Thursday’s close at 4.02 was initially probed overnight but recovered to close Friday above 4.06. This was the minimum objective that limits the week-long drop to being a product of the prior week’s Head & Shoulders. Extending last week’s downleg to close any lower would target new lows under the multi-month basing, and invalidate the basing, which would be bearish.
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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).