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Daily Spot: Week ender. – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot: Week ender.

By Rod David | December 24, 2010 - 2:41 pm

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Volume wasted away Thursday ahead of its early close, so the day offered no new information. That’s not new. Sunday night’s open will probably offer more information than from last two sessions.

A corrective bounce pattern is in-play targting at least 123’06 and potentially 124’00. Meanwhile, closes should hold 120’02, especially if there were a dip down to 119’18. Any dip should be brief to avoid sellers gaining traction under 119’12.

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Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) A third consecutive day of testing and probing the prior session’s high, while failing to clsoe above it. Thursday also closed in negative territory, after being the first of three days not to recover from probing negative territory. Buyers haven’t gained new traction, which means only way to advance ball upfield is to gap up. Not gapping up makes the session vulnerable to reversing back down under 80.60 which would target 79.85.

Gold Feb (GCG) Thursday’s gap down under 1381.00 extended all the way back to prior lows at 1372.00-1374.00. The close still managed to recover back above 1381.00. Barely. Sellers did not gain traction despite gapping down and probing fresh lows for the week. It’s not a buy signal, but it should be followed by strong buying to prevent sellers from trying again and potentially gaining traction.

Crude Oil Feb (CLG) Finally filled the gap back to the two-week old 91.10 open. Still vulnerable to extending higher – if not likely – to 92.45 or 93.15, so long as 90.90 holds any test as support. A deeper pullback could test 89.40 before signaling a new downleg underway.

Natural Gas Jan (NGF) Friday’s flat range doesn’t confirm a recovery underway as would closing above 4.21. Neither does it prevent sellers from regaining control. Support at 4.06 held another test as support, and 4.21 wasn’t probed intraday before failing to close above it. Perhaps biggest reason the recovery potenital gets a benefit of the doubt is because the door was open to sellers regaining tractoin and they didn’t.

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Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).

Posted in Daily Spot