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Daily Spot: Week ender. – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot: Week ender.

By Rod David | December 31, 2010 - 6:59 pm

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Surprising extension of the pullback, and surprisingly sharp at that. The 79.85 pullback target extended down sharply Friday, with two elements that make it difficult to extend: 1. gapping down leaves unfinished business that might attract price higher, and 2. intraday probe of two-week old overnight and intraday lows was recovered on a closing basis. Recovering 79.85 on closing basis would be credible for resuming the rally, but it is meanwhile resistance that should be tested regardless.

Gold Feb (GCG) Long wait for 1427.40 may have gotten shorter. Friday’s gap up immediately proved Thursday afternoon’s dip had held 1407.00 support. Extending higher into the close signaled 1427.40 target remains in-play, with potential to 1436.50. Friday’s gap up also yet again suggests the rally is corrective and intended only to neutralize unfinished business above before triggering new downleg

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Corrective bounce has resumed after absorbing the mid-week detour. Friday’s immediate resumption of the bounce confirmed Thursday’s dip to 120’12 support increases the likelihood for fulfilling both 123’06 and 124’00 corrective bounce targets

Crude Oil Feb (CLG) Sharp surge finally retests prior high, but not directly. Patience was not a virtue, waiting for Wednesday’s ineffectual pessimism to produce one more higher high to sell, and then waiting for Thursday’s low to be retested. Friday’s steep rally began with only a cursory test of Thursday’s low. Dips have room down to 90.85-90.95 before signaling new downleg underway.

Natural Gas Feb (NGG) Extending rally into weekend should extend out of it, too. Friday fulfilled the requirement to extend Thursday’s late surge, confirming it had not expended too much pent-up buying pressure. Intraday highs touched 4.40 neckline of three-week old Head & Shoulders, making 4.54 shoulder’s test likely. too. Just closing above 4.50 would confirm, which is likely because Natty Gas tends to duplicate Monday’s price action on Friday.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).

Posted in Daily Spot