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Daily Spot: Week ender. – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot: Week ender.

By Rod David | January 14, 2011 - 6:49 pm

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Sitting duck. Thursday’s drop to prior lows was not very volatile Friday. The sudden calm mirrors its narrow ranging recently above the range’s 81.10 upper-end. The relentless drop to the range’s lower-end mirrors the earlier relentless rally from this same spot. But revisiting an extreme is different. This area’s two prior tests launched rallies to successively higher highs. Thursday and Friday’s hesitation to even probe fresh lows suggests too much optimism for a bottom to form again.

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Gold Feb (GCG) Too much selling to continue? Closed Friday under 1365.00. This could have been a sell signal if broken prior to the interim rally up to 1393.00. Now a $20 gap down is testing it. The 1354.60 intraday low bounced back to test the morning’s 1360.00 low, which was still being tested at the close. A decisive close under 1360.00 would have confirmed the close under 1365.00. Closing under 1356.00 Monday would confirm. A bounce first to 1372.00 is a little likelier.

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30-year Treasury Mar (USH) False alarm. Again. Ultimately closed Friday back under 121’14. Nothing bullish about the pattern, except that sellers have ignored multiple bearish opportunities to regain traction. Fewer opportunities to close above 121’14 have been presented, but they’ve all been ignored, too. Friday once again probed 121’14 without closing above it; in fact, the close was negative. This is distributive, and it is another bearish opportunity.

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Crude Oil Feb (CLG) Another late save. Avoided a close under 91.00. Closing under 91.00 would have signaled momentum revresing down after buyers had lost traction by closing back under 91.70 Thursday. Closing above 92.25 would trigger a new upleg, but closing under 91.00 would signal momentum reversing down.

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Natural Gas Feb (NGG) A little isn’t enough. Friday’s low probed Thursday’s lows, and also recovered to close above 4.40. The recovery was a little better, but still short of 4.55, and so still short of buyers regaining traction – especially if the close were sharply above 4.55 to compensate for the delay.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).

Posted in Daily Spot