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Daily Spot: Week ender. – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot: Week ender.

By Rod David | January 28, 2011 - 4:34 pm

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Is it a bottom? Friday didn’t probe a new low. Thursday had done that already. But Friday did close above Thursday afternoon’s 78.10 high, which served by proxy as if Thursday had simply closed positive. In fact, the afternoon extended higher to 78.42 intraday. That’s bullish for potentially forming a bottom. The timing is interesting, too, because currencies tend to repeat Friday’s action on Monday. Extending the recovery is likely, but also a requirement in order to confirm the bottom is in.

Gold Apr (GCJ) Bottoming attempt, perhaps a little too much so. 1322.00 (basis Apr, 1320.00 basis Feb) was recovered into Friday’s open. It extended to 1327.00. The afternoon action extended back up to 1348.00 for a retest of the last bounce target. That test produced new lows. Its quick recovery – into the weekend, no less – suggests a bottom is in. It better be in. The alternative is another $60 down quickly. A simultaneous Dollar bottom is not unlikely since both trended down together recently. But it would be unusual to reverse in unison, too.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Fighting over direction. Another day, another flip from above or below 120’14 to above or below 121’14. Actually, just a close at 121’14 this time. There’s no active signal.

Crude Oil Feb (CLG) And then some. Friday’s open had quickly recovered the 86.65 buy signal, allowing me to raise the target to 89.50 from 88.60. That helps to compensate for the delay and detour in bouncing Wednesday. But the bounce must extend higher without delay to avoid at least a pullback to 87.20.

Natural Gas Mar (NGH) Just get it over with. Unless 4.55 were somehow recovered miraculously, I’m awaiting a test of 4.13 before considering a long-entry.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

Posted in Daily Spot