Daily Spot: Week ender.

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.

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Gold Dec (GCZ) Friday’s open gapped up to 1316.50, just under Thursday’s 1317.50 high. The close was still in the process of testing Thursday’s high, despite new highs probing it intraday. No meaningful net movement from open to close, despite gapping up and probing new highs. This is “ineffectual optimism,” and following Thursday’s key reversal, is another signal of the uptrend having lost sponsorship.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Friday’s inside day retested 132’28 support, but closed negative. Unless sellers are clearly retaking control by Tuesday’s open, a bounce to 134’10 and 135’20 will likely be in-play.

Crude Oil Nov (CLX) The 81.35 target was met early. Its reaction down was recovered to close higher. Extending a trend on Friday is unlikely to reverse on Monday. The next resistance at 82.12 should be only a formality on the way to 83.25. A gap down under 79.95 would form an Island that detours down first.

Natural Gas Nov (NGX) Friday’s inside day trended down, further undermining credibility of the drop’s sponsorship. Immediately recovering 3.95-4.00 to trigger a rally would be suspicious before first probing and rejecting fresh lows on Monday.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Thursday’s failure to close above Wednesday’s high meant the recovery had not yet gained traction. The consequence was dramatic, gapping down sharply to new lows and trending down intraday. Since Thursday’s close was not a new low, Friday’s drop is a breakout, and Friday breakouts are seldom confirmed on Monday. Recovering from fresh lows would reinstate the potential for rallying sharply through the week.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).