Daily Spot: Week ender.
A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]
Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) One gap at a time. Two consecutive sessions have gapped up without buyers gaining traction either day. Friday’s gap up didn’t extend much higher, and RSIs diverged negatively into the intraday high’s retest. A pullback has room down to 78.25, perhaps to 77.85, while still being likely to resolve in a new upleg.
Gold Apr (GCJ) The bullish case for procrastination. 1361.50 did not hold as support through Friday’s close, proving that Thursday afternoon’s recovery did squander the pent-up buying pressure that was created by the open’s gap down. The 1376.00 bounce target does not require a test, and there is no other unfinished business above.
30-year Treasury Mar (USH) When a low becomes too obvious, it isn’t. Friday’s gap up proved that Thursday’s inside day was “ineffectual pessimism.” Its close back above 118’00 still prevents sellers from gaining traction, and keeps the door open for a corrective bounce targeting 119’04 up to 119’16. Not bouncing significantly Monday would mean the next downleg was about to begin, or it already had.
Crude Oil Mar (CLH) There’s always something. Finally broke lower after all of its chipping away at support, probing new lows that were dictated by its previous test of Jan 26’s 86.00 pivotal low. The 87.65 interim high held its tests as resistance, limiting how much sellers were refueled. The next target at 84.00 has a better chance at being a significant bottom. Jubilation in Tahir Square may not end, but focus should then turn to developments that are more bullish for oil.
Natural Gas Mar (NGH) Time to refuel the drop? Friday’s characteristics tend to be duplicated on Mondays in Natty Gas. So the new lows are likely to extend lower. The next opportunity for a low is 3.84, and closing positive Monday after testing it intraday could be bullish.
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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).