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Daily Spot: Week ender. – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot: Week ender.

By Rod David | February 19, 2011 - 2:10 pm

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Better late than never, to a point. The price of Tuesday’s shallow correction continued to mount. Friday extended down yet another day. The two-week old gap back was filled down to 77.57, but 77.85 wasn’t recovered – which would have formed a bottom. Immediately recovering and extending through 77.85 Tuesday still could. Otherwise, a much bigger drop is underway.

Gold Apr (GCJ) Lighter than air. Thursday’s close above 1376.00 was confirmed by a second consecutive higher close Friday. The next higher target is 1402.00, and potentially 1424.00. That said, this is a very difficult pattern to manage long-entry, and a close under 1376.00 would signal momentum reversing down.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Ineffectual pessimism again. The long-bond tends not to be a distraction on expirations, perhaps out of professional courtesy. So, despite Friday’s gap down extending to 118’22, the afternoon narrowed the loss to 6 ticks by closing at 119’07. Repeated testing of the 119’04-119’16 bounce target, without yet reversing down, suggests there may be more work to do above. But there is no signal in place.

Crude Oil Apr (CLJ) Gusher coming? Friday’s gap up further confirmed the long-held target had fulfilled selling pressure. The first bounce target was met at 90.50, triggering a corrective dip that filled the gap back to Thursday’s close. Same-day neutralizing the attraction below helps to leave pent-up buying pressure for extending up to the 92.85-93.60 target, which is in-play so long as 88.50 holds as support.

Natural Gas Mar (NGH) Down, but not out. Friday’s narrow ranging was identical to Thursday afternoon’s pattern. There’s still no buy signal, but a one-day rally could begin suddenly and test of probe 4.13.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

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