Daily Spot: Week ender.
A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]
Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Too soon? Friday’s gap up extended higher to 77.46 into mid-morning, then plateaued for the day. A better bottom would have tested Feb 1’s 77.08 low, first. It still should, although maybe not immediately since currencies tend to mimic Friday’s action on Mondays. This Monday might be an exception since Friday was “ineffectual optimism” (gapping up, probing prior session’s high, and trading exclusively in positive territory, but without closing above he morning’s high).
Gold Apr (GCJ) Ignoring the spike. There was nothing remarkable about Friday’s relatively narrow range. Which is remarkable, because of Thursday’s post-close spike down. Friday’s regular trading hours neither retested it, nor squeezed it, which suggests it was a warning shot across bow at buyers. Still, closing above 1405.50 maintains potential for noise to test 1426.00. But the pattern is still topping so long as any new high intraday fails to close above 1415.50.
30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Untimely strength. There was no reaction down Friday following Thursday’s “ineffectual optimism.” This keeps alive potential to test the outstanding 122’04 target. A close under 120’26-120’30 would suggest the rally had already peaked.
Crude Oil Apr (CLJ) Eerie calm. Similar to Gold, Crude Oil ranged only narrowly intraday, as if Thursday’s post-close drop never happened. Unlike Gold, much of Crude’s drop Thursday had happened already intraday. And Wednesday’s 97.89 close was still being tested at Friday’s close. Another rally leg remains possible, if not likely, but another day or two of consolidation is possible first.
Natural Gas Apr (NGJ) More than a pulse. Two weeks of probing fresh lows intraday without gaining traction have made the pattern increasingly vulnerable to at least a corrective bounce. Thursday’s recovery from gapping down and probing fresh lows down to 3.82 may have been the last straw. Friday session trended straight up to 4.04 into the noon hour. That’s new highs for the week, even after accounting for the afternoon’s Bull Flag retracement. This market tends to mimic Friday’s action on Monday, which could attack or even test the bounce’s 4.21 minimum objective.
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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).