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Daily Spot: Week ender. – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot: Week ender.

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Still no bottoming. Friday’s probe of new lows ended like Thursday – still testing the prior day’s lows. That also means no decisive bottom. Mondays tend to mimic Friday’s action in currencies, so the trend’s momentum remains intact.

Gold Apr (GCJ) Still on a mission. Tuesdays breakout and Wednesday’s confirmation created the requirement for at least a third higher high. Resistance at 1435.00 created an opportunity from holding support at 1416.00. Friday’s rally confirmed the support had held, and new highs are in-play.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Still toppy. The Employment Situation report’s reaction managed a close back above 118’26 to invalidate its sell signal. But another sell signal could still be generated so long as 119’26 isn’t recovered on a closing basis. Closing any higher would put into play at least a detour to actually probe 121’07 meaningfully intraday.

Crude Oil Apr (CLJ) Still surging. Thursday’s “ineffectual pessimism” produced new highs Friday. The session trended up intraday to qualify as a breakout. Closing higher Monday would confirm.The next higher resistance is 107.25. Otherwise, closing back under 101.00 would indicate the last rally leg had ended, and momentum was reversing down.

Natural Gas Apr (NGJ) Still not bouncing. Probes of the lows continue, and continue to avoid gaining traction. It’s not as accumulative as probes were prior to the recent two-day rally, but no bearish pattern is in-play.

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Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).