Daily Spot: Week ender.
A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]
Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Waiting too much longer to resume rallying would be bearish. At least one characteristic of excessive optimism was already present in each of four consecutive sessions. Friday’s spike up was too much optimism for the overly-optimistic rally to maintain. This became especially so when the emotions that triggered the spike started subsiding. The 76.75 pullback target was met, with potential still outstanding down to 76.50 where a more durable rally leg can begin.
Gold Apr (GCJ) One more opportunity to probe new highs. Thursday’s drop to 1403.00 was retraced back to Thursday’s 1422.70 intraday high. So, Friday’s inside day was only noise. And it trended up, which is “ineffectual optimism.” Closing above 124’00 Monday would be credible for extending to new highs targeting 1429’50 and potentially 1450’00. Otherwise, failing to hold 1412’00 would signal a downleg already underway, targeting 1366.00.
30-year Treasury Jun (USM) First rally attempt was brief. Is another coming? Overnight action initially firmed in a flight-to-qualify after the earthquake. The prior week’s 120’26 high was finally retested. Despite probing prior highs, Friday’s close was flat to lower. Buyers gained no traction for their efforts. Closing back above 120’17 would target 122’00, but under 119’26 would start to signal sellers gaining traction for a new downleg.
Crude Oil Apr (CLJ) And I thought looking for a durable high at all could be too bearish. At Friday morning’s Market Tour I noted that I’ve begun questioning whether the 107.25 target is more valid than last Monday’s 106.95 peak. Not extending higher all week – instead dropping back under prior highs to 99.00 – at least confirms the upleg was as not durable. Not closing above 103.00 this Monday would suggest it was terminal. And closing under 100.00 would signal a new downleg underway targeting 91.00.
Natural Gas Apr (NGJ) Another week, and still no net movement. The week ended by closing back above 3.93 to prevent sellers from gaining traction. The entire week flirted with 3.93. A close above 4.02 would leave no unfinished business below to inhibit a rally effort targeting 4.25 and higher.
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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).