Daily Spot: Week ender.
A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]
Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) No bailout here. Gapping down Friday removed any potential for Thursday’s own gap down to become an Island. The drop extended down into the afternoon, a second consecutive new relative low close that confirmed Thursday’s breakout. Mondays tend to mimic Friday’s price action in currencies, so lower lows are likely. At least one more lower low is required anyway due to the confirmed breakout. Closing back above 76.06 would signal a corrective bounce targeting 76.30 first.
Gold Apr (GCJ) One-day detour narrowly avoids reversing down. Sometimes, two ineffectual optimisms do cancel each other out. Not resolving down immediately had potential for extending the bounce up to 1424.00. Thursday’s close above 1399.00 extended higher to the target, which pushed back down after RSIs diverged negatively on its retest. The close held 1416.00 support, whose break would have signaled momentum already reversing down. Now closing under 1412.00 would resume the decline.
30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Look out above. Friday’s open dropped to test 121’08, and also spiked down to test the prior week’s “lower prior highs” as support. The gap back to Monday’s close was narrowly missed, but the session closed positive. Several hours into the close were spent hovering pessimistically just below 122’00, which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective, leaving potential to resume the rally up to 125’00.
Crude Oil Apr (CLJ) No short zone. Libya’s cease fire declaration triggered a $3 drop that bottomed just above 100.00, whose recovery Thursday had put into play 104.50. RSI diverged positively on its retest following a brief bounce, producing another bounce. The 104.50 target remains in-play so long as 100.00 holds as support, and potentially 107.25. Closing under 100.00 would trigger a steeper and deeper downleg underway.
Natural Gas May (NGK) It’s real. Friday’s close was flat with its 4.23 open. The 4.25 target was fulfilled intraday. This doesn’t qualify as a second consecutive higher close that would confirm Thursday’s breakout. And Mondays tend to mimic Fridays in this market. Any early strength would be suspicious, but I would give it a benefit of the doubt considering the bigger picture – a benefit of the doubt, and a relatively tight trailing stop.
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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).