Daily Spot: Week ender.
A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]
Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Bigger buying pressure still moving in. Friday’s strong rally to new recovery highs at 76.56 was a victory for Thursday’s “ineffectual pessimism” over Thursday’s “ineffectual optimism.” It wasn’t a fair fight. A rally was already made possible by Tuesday’s flat close at the lows, and make likely by Wednesday’s gap up to prior highs. Gold’s own bearish behavior and reversal signal also suggests a stronger Dollar. Follow-through after the weekend is likely since currencies tend to mimic Friday’s action on Monday.
Gold Apr (GCJ) The sentiment shift is sliding quickly. Thursday’s rejection of the March 7 high’s test didn’t extend down immediately Friday. But it did extend down eventually to briefly test 1422.00. The second consecutive close back under 1437.00-1438.00 confirmed that buyers have lost traction. Closing under 1424.00 would signal sellers gaining traction for a new downleg, so long as 1437.00-1438.00 is not recovered on a closing basis.
30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Is timid selling necessarily bullish? The deeper pullback targeting 120’07 was fulfilled Friday down to 120’02, bouncing to close at 120’07. Quickly recovering 120’16 Monday would be likely to extend higher intraday. Closing above 120’25 would next target 122’00, whose own recovery would put into play 125’00. A second consecutive lower close Monday under Friday’s 120’02 low would make any bullish scenario unlikely.
Crude Oil Jun (CLM) The rally window has re-opened. Friday’s fourth consecutive session ranging around the corrective bounce’s 105.75 target is two days past suggesting that sellers weren’t yet going to retake control. Closing under 104.50 would suggest otherwise, but meanwhile there is potential to resume the rally targeting 109.00 and 113.00.
Natural Gas May (NGK) Absorbing sellers with little delay. Friday afternoon’s 15-cent surge to 4.50 proved that Thursday’s close was still in the process of testing the 4.35 pullback limit, and had not actually closed under it. Recovering 4.40 already confirmed that the 4.55 target remains in-play. This market tends to mimic Friday’s action on Monday, making follow-through likely. Above 4.55 would next target 4.70.
[/pay]
Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…
Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).