Daily Spot: Week ender.

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Wait, it gets worse. Friday’s gap down exceeded the next target of 75.50. The balance of the session extended down intraday to close under the morning’s low. That’s traction. And Mondays tend to mimic Friday’s action, so lower lows are likely to start the week. The only bottoming pattern available would be a pivot reversal (i.e. gap up in a downtrend, probe fresh trend lows intraday, then recover to close above the mornign’s high). Otherwise, the trend remains down.

Gold Jun (GCM) Officially, a bubble. Friday’s open gapped up and extended higher intraday, but closed back at (or in the process of testing) the open’s gap up print. So, buyers gained no traction. This is in-line with Thursday’s new highs also not having gained traction, after Wednesday’s new highs on ineffectual optimism didn’t gain traction to confirm Tuesday’s breakout. Obviously, this doesn’t prevent higher highs, but it is only stretching the rubber band further away from the requirement to eventually test 1447.00-1449.00. So, the eventual retracement is likelier to be aggressive, and more difficult to recover.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Time to refuel sellers? Friday’s fresh low might appear to have fulfilled the minimum objective of Wednesday’s breakout, which was confirmed Thursday. But the new low was a gap down whose reaction only trended up intraday. This does not fulfill the spirit of the confirmed signal, so lower lows remain likely, as the 117’00 target remains in-play. Friday night’s budget deal might offer some near-term relief back up to 119’04, but the trend remains down so long as 119’18 isn’t recovered.

Crude Oil May (CLK) Bubble character. Friday’s open gapped up and extended considerably higher intraday, and even higher after the close to fulfill the 113.00 target. That was the reward for not having begun a downleg from the 108.25-108.50 target. But the consequence for extending higher first, instead of a dip refueling buyers, should be that the 113.00 target is rejected. Immediate weakness Monday would not be credible, but closing down or opening lower Tuesday would launch at least a sizable retracement, if not a durable downleg.

Natural Gas May (NGK) Coming into a low. The 3.97 lower target was attacked while Friday’s fresh lows fulfilled the minimum objective of Wednesday’s confirmed breakout. Lower lows are likely Monday. Bouncing Monday afternoon from testing 3.97 would form a credible bottom. Bouncing too quickly – regardless of whether having tested 3.97 already – would be sellers refueling, instead.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).