Daily Spot: Week ender.

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.

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Gold Dec (GCZ) Weakness before the Employment Situation report retested the 1329.30 pullback low. Its reaction up held a test of the 1349.30 target that had stopped Wednesday’s rally from gaining traction. Testing Thursday’s 1357.60 opening gap and closing back under 1349.30 would signal the top was forming. There’s room to probe new highs intraday up to 1370.50, but a big intraday reversal would be more difficult.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) The wide reverberation following Friday’s report recovered well into positive territory intraday. The afternoon slid back into negative territory. The range was shockingly narrow for such a watched market ahead of such a weighty item. It is almost a narrowing range, but not yet extended, whose first breakout attempt would be false. Closing under 134’10 would be bearish, but I would be suspicious until confirmed the following day.

Crude Oil Nov (CLX) The rally’s 83.20-83.25 target was met Wednesday. Thursday’s probe of higher highs was rejected sharply that day. But the reaction down already recovered back to within a dime of the target Friday. This reflects a lot of optimism still influencing the pattern. In fact, Friday’s low stopped at only a 38.2% retracement of the rally. A fresh high above 84.35 cannot be ruled out, but rejecting it through the close would seal a significant top.

Natural Gas Nov (NGX) This market may be the new destination for so-called Gold Bugs that have been priced out. The pattern continually shuns every opportunity either to neutralize sellers or to gain traction. Most recent is Friday’s pre-open new low that reacted up strongly into the open. But two lower lows intraday each stopped optimistically short of retesting the low. The drop continues, apparently being accumulated by weak hands.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Friday morning’s volatility disappeared quickly, as the market essentially flat-lined into the close. But this all took place above Thursday’s 77.28 opening gap that must be filled to begin any bottoming process. Preferably, a bottom would also probe Thursday’s 77.15 low before recovering to close above Wednesday’s 77.60 close. Otherwise, the trend remains down.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).