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Daily Spot: Week ender. – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot: Week ender.

By Rod David | April 15, 2011 - 5:41 pm

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Still no bottom, but another bottom setup. Friday’s opening print back above prior lows created a gap back down to Thursday’s 74.89 close. The unfinished business below inhibits a recovery from gaining traction. Dipping to fill the gap Monday, and then reversing up to close above Friday’s 75.22 high, would form a durable bottom.

Gold Jun (GCM) Target met, and then some. Wednesday’s recovery above 1455.00 finally extended higher Thursday night to probe 1480.00, whose test was the rally’s minimum objective. It extended higher intraday. Back under 1479.50 would rob buyers of their traction, and a close under 1474.20 would reverse momentum down.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Detour, or new rally? The next higher objective at 120’25 was tested Friday morning, and retested in the afternoon, holding through the close. This undermines the ability to resume the downleg targeting 117’00. Buyers get a benefit of the doubt for extending the rally higher so long as 120’12 holds as support. Closing under 120’02 would signal momentum reversing down, confirmed under 119’24.

Crude Oil May (CLK) Rallying into a bear market. Friday’s pattern duplicated Thursday’s gap down and its steep recovery to new highs into the afternoon. Higher objectives at 111.00 were attacked to within $1. Obligatory resistance at the gap back to Monday’s 109.82 close resisted the bounce. But 111.05 is in-play so long as 108.90 holds as support.

Natural Gas May (NGK) Some pauses don’t refresh. Thursday’s rally had held 4.25 as resistance, robbing buyers of their traction. Closing above 4.25 was still capable of signaling an upleg underway. Friday wasn’t expected to close higher, but it didn’t even retrace Thursday’s rally. The optimistic delay suggests that an intraday probe above 4.25 will likely fail, and reverse down sharply.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

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