Daily Spot: Week ender.
A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]
Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Another day, another new low. Only a gap up Friday would have reversed momentum up. It wasn’t even attempted. Consequently, no new longs were trapped to fuel sellers. But Friday’s gap down was retested after a bounce back up into Thursday’s range, so there is no unfinished business below. Closing above Friday’s high, preferably after probing Friday’s low first, would form a bottom. The trend otherwise remains down.
Gold Jun (GCM) Bubble quality blow-off. The $30-40 rally extended substantially Friday to attack 1570.00, obviously having no connection with the dollar whose hesitation to extend down wasn’t shared. Maintaining the momentum of this leg of the rally off of Tuesday’s relatively shallow pullback cannot tolerate any dissent. The base was not solid, and its low left unfinished business below. When the trend ends it will end violently.
30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Inching into a rally? Friday ended positive, still testing the open’s 122’12 gap up. It was not so much a rejection of the highs, nor was it a buy signal. But it doesn’t reject any buy signal and it doesn’t trigger a sell signal. Absent obvious and immediate selling at Monday’s open, the bounce may yet firm up to 122’18. Closing under 121’12 would signal momentum reversing down, confirmed under 120’25.
Crude Oil Jun (CLM) Hesitant sellers, and you know what that means. Thursday’s dip to 111.65 chipped away at its support without triggering a sell signal. The range’s 113.00 upper-end was probed Friday. It’s still not a breakout, as each higher close is still within a prior intraday high. Rather, the pattern is distributive. Big money is selling into the hype. Timing a reversal may require trapping buyers with a failed surge. And meanwhile the retest could extend up to 115.30 and perhaps 118.50.
Natural Gas Jun (NGM) Earning its benefit of the doubt. The rally extended through 4.62 to 4.70, putting into play 4.80 so long as 4.62 holds as support. No reversal down would be signaled without first closing under 4.55.
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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).